The Article 5 Double-Bind
A NATO ally invokes Article 5, but the US House of Representatives refuses to authorize war or funding.
Russian armored divisions openly cross the Suwałki Gap into NATO member Lithuania. Lithuania instantly invokes Article 5. However, a fiercely isolationist faction in the US House of Representatives immediately passes a binding resolution forbidding the use of any federal funds for European deployment.
You are the US Secretary of State
The Situation Room
>The Lithuanian Ambassador is in your office in tears, demanding the US honor the treaty.
>The Pentagon reports they have enough discretionary funding for 72 hours of combat operations before they violate the Anti-Deficiency Act.
>European allies are panicking, realizing the US security umbrella is paralyzed by domestic dysfunction.
Internal Briefing Notes
• Article 5 states an attack on one is an attack on all, but response actions are determined in accordance with each nation's respective constitutional processes.
• The US Constitution grants the power of the purse exclusively to the House of Representatives.
• The President commands the military, but cannot legally spend unappropriated money to field them.
Escalation Window
Reveal each phase to see how the situation deteriorates.
The President must make a broadcast to the world. How do you advise them to navigate the double-bind?
Choose your response. There are no good options.
Save NATO, but you trigger an immediate domestic constitutional crisis, virtually guaranteeing the President's impeachment.
Lithuania is annexed. The NATO alliance permanently fractures, completely unraveling the post-WWII security architecture.
Give Europe the weapons to fight without US troops. It prolongs the conflict immensely and fails to fulfill the core promise of Article 5.
Related Entities
Explore the institutions, countries, and actors involved in this scenario.
United States
Federal presidential republic and the world's largest economy, with power divided among the presidency, Congress, the states, and the federal courts. U.S. politics is highly polarized, two-party dominated, and globally consequential because decisions made in Washington shape finance, trade, security alliances, technology regulation, and military power far beyond U.S. borders.
Russia
Federal semi-presidential republic spanning Eastern Europe and Northern Asia. The world's largest country by area and a major nuclear power. Power is heavily centralized in the presidency, with a managed multi-party system dominated by United Russia. Russia is a permanent member of the UN Security Council. The political system combines formal constitutional structures with strong executive dominance, limited opposition activity, and state influence over media and elections.
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