The Baltic Corridor Collapse
A lightning Russian thrust severs the Suwalki Gap, forcing NATO to decide whether to counterattack immediately or accept a strategic catastrophe.
Before dawn, Russian airborne and mechanized forces strike simultaneously from Kaliningrad and Belarus, collapsing the narrow Suwalki corridor that links Poland to the Baltic allies. Lithuania reports that overland reinforcement routes are gone within six hours.
You are the Supreme Allied Commander Europe
The Situation Room
>Warsaw is demanding immediate allied fires into the corridor before Russian air defenses harden.
>Berlin warns that a failed counterattack would destroy NATO credibility faster than a delayed one.
>US planners report that the first wave of heavy reinforcements is still days away unless you accept enormous transport losses.
Internal Briefing Notes
• The Suwalki Gap is the only practical land corridor linking the core alliance to the Baltic states.
• Once Russia layers integrated air defense, electronic warfare, and artillery into the corridor, any liberation campaign becomes dramatically more costly.
• NATO unanimity is politically essential, but military timelines move faster than alliance consensus.
Escalation Window
Reveal each phase to see how the situation deteriorates.
The corridor is closing and allied capitals want a recommendation now. What is your operational choice?
Choose your response. There are no good options.
You preserve a chance to reopen the corridor early, but risk a bloody failed assault against prepared Russian fires.
You improve the odds of success later, but almost certainly abandon the Baltic allies to occupation in the meantime.
You avoid the worst land killing zone, but open a much broader NATO-Russia war across multiple theaters.
Related Entities
Explore the institutions, countries, and actors involved in this scenario.
United States
Federal presidential republic and the world's largest economy, with power divided among the presidency, Congress, the states, and the federal courts. U.S. politics is highly polarized, two-party dominated, and globally consequential because decisions made in Washington shape finance, trade, security alliances, technology regulation, and military power far beyond U.S. borders.
Russia
Federal semi-presidential republic spanning Eastern Europe and Northern Asia. The world's largest country by area and a major nuclear power. Power is heavily centralized in the presidency, with a managed multi-party system dominated by United Russia. Russia is a permanent member of the UN Security Council. The political system combines formal constitutional structures with strong executive dominance, limited opposition activity, and state influence over media and elections.
Lithuania
country in northeastern Europe
Scenario Lab Feedback