The Dollar Sanctions Revolt
A bloc of major powers simultaneously dumps dollar settlement and launches a rival payments architecture, threatening a fracture in US financial primacy.
A coalition led by China announces that, effective immediately, strategic energy and commodity trades among member states will settle through a new non-dollar payments rail. Within minutes, several central banks begin unloading Treasury holdings to support the transition.
You are the US Treasury Secretary
The Situation Room
>Oil exporters are demanding to know whether they should keep invoicing in dollars by the next market open.
>Treasury market depth is evaporating as foreign official institutions become net sellers at the same time.
>The President wants emergency sanctions on the architects of the new system, even though that could accelerate adoption overnight.
Internal Briefing Notes
• Dollar dominance depends not just on habit, but on deep Treasury liquidity, commodity invoicing, and legal trust in US settlement systems.
• Once enough major trade flows shift off-dollar simultaneously, reserve managers begin reducing exposure as a matter of balance-sheet survival.
• Coercive use of sanctions strengthens near-term leverage but can also incentivize adversaries to build durable alternatives faster.
Escalation Window
Reveal each phase to see how the situation deteriorates.
The market sees a test of American financial hegemony. What is your first response?
Choose your response. There are no good options.
You may frighten some participants back into line, but also validate every argument for escaping US financial coercion.
You stabilize the immediate panic, but confirm to the world that reserve-currency status now requires emergency life support.
You may fracture the revolt diplomatically, but only by signaling that the United States is negotiating from weakness.
Related Entities
Explore the institutions, countries, and actors involved in this scenario.
United States
Federal presidential republic and the world's largest economy, with power divided among the presidency, Congress, the states, and the federal courts. U.S. politics is highly polarized, two-party dominated, and globally consequential because decisions made in Washington shape finance, trade, security alliances, technology regulation, and military power far beyond U.S. borders.
People's Republic of China
Single-party socialist state led by the Chinese Communist Party and one of the two central poles of global power. China combines party control, state planning capacity, export-industrial strength, technological ambition, and a vast domestic market, making its political decisions consequential for global trade, security, supply chains, and regional power balances.
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