The Global Breadbasket Failure
Simultaneous crop failures in the US, Ukraine, and India trigger global famine conditions. Exporting nations ban food exports. Importing nations face revolution.
An unprecedented combination of La Niña-driven drought in North America, continued war disruption in Ukraine, and a failed monsoon in India simultaneously devastates the three largest wheat-producing regions. Global wheat reserves drop to 10 weeks of supply — the lowest since World War II. India, Russia, and Argentina immediately ban all grain exports.
You are the Director-General of the World Food Programme
The Situation Room
>Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, has 23 days of bread reserves remaining. The government that falls when bread runs out will be the fourth Egyptian revolution in 15 years.
>Global food prices have tripled in six weeks. UN estimates project 400 million people facing acute hunger within 90 days.
>The US Strategic Grain Reserve was eliminated in 2008. There is no buffer.
Internal Briefing Notes
• Four countries — the US, Russia, Ukraine, and India — produce over 50% of the world's wheat exports.
• The "Arab Spring" was triggered in part by a wheat price spike of just 30%. Current prices are up 200%.
• Modern agriculture depends on just-in-time supply chains; there are no significant strategic food reserves anywhere in the world.
Escalation Window
Reveal each phase to see how the situation deteriorates.
Hundreds of millions face starvation. Exporting nations are hoarding. What is your emergency plan?
Choose your response. There are no good options.
Ask the UN Security Council to override export bans. Exporting nations will refuse, and you have no enforcement mechanism.
Work with importing nations on managed distribution. You slow the crisis but cannot create food that doesn't exist.
Convince Gulf states to trade oil at below-market rates to grain exporters in exchange for food. A creative solution, but one that takes weeks to implement while people starve daily.
Related Entities
Explore the institutions, countries, and actors involved in this scenario.
United States
Federal presidential republic and the world's largest economy, with power divided among the presidency, Congress, the states, and the federal courts. U.S. politics is highly polarized, two-party dominated, and globally consequential because decisions made in Washington shape finance, trade, security alliances, technology regulation, and military power far beyond U.S. borders.
Ukraine
country in Eastern Europe
India
Federal parliamentary democratic republic. World's most populous country with a multi-party parliamentary system.
Egypt
country in Northeast Africa and Southwest Asia
Nigeria
sovereign state in West Africa
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