The NATO Ally Coup
A NATO member's military seizes power in a coup. The new junta demands continued alliance membership — and it controls a key US air base with nuclear weapons.
Turkey's military launches a successful coup, arresting the elected government overnight. The new junta immediately declares martial law, suspends the constitution, and demands that NATO recognize the new government as the legitimate member state. Incirlik Air Base — hosting 50 US B61 nuclear gravity bombs — is surrounded by Turkish troops who are "securing the perimeter."
You are the US Secretary of Defense
The Situation Room
>The base commander at Incirlik reports Turkish forces have cut external power and are controlling all entry points. US personnel are confined to base.
>The junta leader is on the phone demanding a meeting with the President "as NATO's newest head of state."
>European allies are demanding Turkey's immediate suspension from NATO. But the Washington Treaty has no suspension mechanism.
Internal Briefing Notes
• NATO has no mechanism to suspend or expel a member state. The Washington Treaty only allows voluntary withdrawal.
• US nuclear weapons at Incirlik are under dual-key arrangements requiring both US and host nation authorization for use.
• Turkey controls the Bosphorus Strait — the only passage between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean — under the 1936 Montreux Convention.
Escalation Window
Reveal each phase to see how the situation deteriorates.
A military junta controls your nuclear weapons and a critical strait. What is your priority?
Choose your response. There are no good options.
Launch a covert extraction operation to remove the B61s from Incirlik. If it goes wrong, you've just attacked a NATO ally's military.
Pragmatically accept the coup to maintain strategic stability. You abandon democratic principles and embolden military coups worldwide.
Treat Turkey as a hostile state until democracy is restored. You lose Incirlik, the Bosphorus, and fracture NATO's southeastern flank.
Related Entities
Explore the institutions, countries, and actors involved in this scenario.
Turkey
country in West Asia and Southeast Europe
United States
Federal presidential republic and the world's largest economy, with power divided among the presidency, Congress, the states, and the federal courts. U.S. politics is highly polarized, two-party dominated, and globally consequential because decisions made in Washington shape finance, trade, security alliances, technology regulation, and military power far beyond U.S. borders.
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