The Kremlin Succession Crisis
Russia's president is incapacitated with no clear successor. The FSB, military, and oligarchs each back a different candidate — and all have nuclear codes.
Russian state media abruptly goes dark for six hours. When broadcasts resume, a visibly shaken spokesperson announces the President has suffered "a serious medical event" and is unconscious in a military hospital. No acting president has been designated. Three factions immediately claim authority.
You are the US Director of National Intelligence
The Situation Room
>The FSB director has sealed the Kremlin and claims constitutional authority as acting head of the Security Council.
>The Defense Minister has placed strategic nuclear forces on heightened alert and is broadcasting orders from a command bunker.
>A coalition of oligarchs is backing the Prime Minister's constitutional claim and has hired private military companies to secure Moscow's financial district.
>Russia's 6,000 nuclear warheads are now under ambiguous command authority.
Internal Briefing Notes
• The Russian Constitution designates the Prime Minister as acting president, but real power in Russia flows through informal networks, not constitutional text.
• Russia's nuclear command structure requires the "Cheget" briefcase — currently believed to be in the FSB director's possession.
• Any perceived vacuum in Moscow will immediately embolden separatist movements in Chechnya, Dagestan, and potentially Tatarstan.
Escalation Window
Reveal each phase to see how the situation deteriorates.
A nuclear superpower is fragmenting in real time. What do you recommend to the President?
Choose your response. There are no good options.
Support the Prime Minister publicly. If he loses the power struggle, you've antagonized whoever actually takes control of 6,000 nuclear weapons.
The Defense Minister is the most pragmatic actor. But legitimizing a military coup sets a catastrophic precedent and may trigger a civil war anyway.
Say nothing and watch. You avoid picking the wrong side, but risk a miscalculation during the most dangerous nuclear command vacuum since the Cold War.
Related Entities
Explore the institutions, countries, and actors involved in this scenario.
Russia
Federal semi-presidential republic spanning Eastern Europe and Northern Asia. The world's largest country by area and a major nuclear power. Power is heavily centralized in the presidency, with a managed multi-party system dominated by United Russia. Russia is a permanent member of the UN Security Council. The political system combines formal constitutional structures with strong executive dominance, limited opposition activity, and state influence over media and elections.
United States
Federal presidential republic and the world's largest economy, with power divided among the presidency, Congress, the states, and the federal courts. U.S. politics is highly polarized, two-party dominated, and globally consequential because decisions made in Washington shape finance, trade, security alliances, technology regulation, and military power far beyond U.S. borders.
People's Republic of China
Single-party socialist state led by the Chinese Communist Party and one of the two central poles of global power. China combines party control, state planning capacity, export-industrial strength, technological ambition, and a vast domestic market, making its political decisions consequential for global trade, security, supply chains, and regional power balances.
Scenario Lab Feedback