Will the U.S. Collect Less Than $100B in Customs Duties in FY2025?

Last Updated: March 3, 2026

Resolution Intelligence

The prediction market asking whether the U.S. will collect less than $100B in customs duties in FY2025 resolves to YES if the official U.S. government data shows that total customs duties collected during Fiscal Year 2025 were strictly less than $100,000,000,000. For the market to resolve to NO, the final figure must equal or exceed $100 billion. The definitive outcome is determined exclusively by the Final Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for the period ending September 30, 2025.

Official Resolution Criteria

Metric Addressed: Total Receipts for "Customs Duties"
Timeframe: Fiscal Year 2025 (October 1, 2024 – September 30, 2025)
Threshold: $100 Billion ($100,000,000,000)
Resolves YES if: FY2025 Customs Duties < $100,000,000,000
Resolves NO if: FY2025 Customs Duties >= $100,000,000,000

What makes YES resolve?

A YES resolution (meaning less than $100B collected) requires total tariff revenue to continue along historical baselines or decline. This occurs if:

No sweeping, high-percentage tariffs are enacted and implemented early enough in FY2025 to impact collections.
New tariffs are enacted, but they suppress overall import volumes so sharply that total revenue drops despite higher tax rates.
Exemptions or legal delays prevent proposed tariffs from taking effect before September 30, 2025.

What makes NO resolve?

A NO resolution (meaning $100B or more collected) requires a mathematically significant acceleration in federal tariff receipts. This occurs if:

Aggressive, broad-based tariffs (such as blanket percentage tariffs on major trading partners) are implemented successfully and enforced for a large portion of the fiscal year.
Consumer demand for imported goods remains highly inelastic, meaning corporations continue importing at high volumes despite the increased duty rates.

Data Source Transparency

Publishing Agency: U.S. Department of the Treasury (Bureau of the Fiscal Service)
Official Report: The Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) of Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government
Where The Data Appears: In the MTS, the figure is located in "Table 4. Receipts of the U.S. Government," under the specific classification line item: "Customs Duties".
Reporting Schedule: The Treasury publishes the MTS monthly, typically on the 8th business day of the following month.
When The Result Becomes Final: The definitive FY2025 total will be published in the September 2025 MTS release, scheduled for mid-October 2025.

Current Context & Outlook

Federal revenue collections scale with trade volume and applied tariff rates. As of the most recently published Monthly Treasury Statement:

Recent Historical Baselines: In FY2023, the U.S. collected approximately $80 billion in customs duties. In FY2022, collections peaked marginally higher due to post-pandemic import surges.
The Path to $100 Billion: Reaching or breaking the $100B threshold within a single fiscal year would require a substantial structural increase in collections—roughly an average of $8.33 billion per month. This could be driven by broad, newly enacted tariff policies covering high-volume international imports.
Analytical Outlook: Based on historical averages near $6.5–$7B per month, total collections would fall below the $100B threshold absent a structural policy change.
(Note: Traders tracking the live trajectory should consult the most recent Monthly Treasury Statement for current Year-To-Date figures).*

Prediction Market Structure

Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi structure macroeconomic questions as binary prediction contracts traded between participants.

Contract Mechanics: You purchase shares of the side you believe will happen. If you hold the correct side when the September 2025 Treasury data is published, your shares settle at $1.00 each. Incorrect shares settle at $0.00.
Understanding Probability Pricing: The current trading price reflects the market's collective, real-time probability forecast. If "Yes" is trading at 82¢, the market implies an 82% statistical probability that the final customs duty figure will fall below $100 billion.
Dynamic Response: These prices are not fixed. They will fluctuate immediately in response to new trade policy announcements, monthly Treasury data releases, and shifting macroeconomic models.

Frequently Asked Questions

What happens if customs revenue equals exactly $100B?

Because the contract explicitly asks if the U.S. will collect less than $100B, an exact collection of $100,000,000,000.00 fails the criteria. The market would resolve to NO.

When will FY2025 customs revenue be finalized?

The U.S. Treasury will finalize and publish the total FY2025 data in the September Monthly Treasury Statement, which is officially released in mid-October 2025.

Where can I verify the official number?

You can verify the official figure directly on the U.S. Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service website by downloading the Monthly Treasury Statement and checking Table 4 for 'Customs Duties' receipts.

How accurate are prediction markets?

Prediction markets aggregate information, mathematical models, and financial capital from thousands of participants. They are typically highly reactive and act as a reliable, real-time gauge of probability, often outperforming individual expert forecasts.

What fiscal year definition applies?

The contract relies on the standard United States Federal Government fiscal year. FY2025 officially began on October 1, 2024, and strictly concludes on September 30, 2025.