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Real-time probabilities derived from liquid prediction markets. Tracking 50 active events across multiple categories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025,
This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related mili
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taylor Swift announces that she is pregnant between July 30, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise,
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territo
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between February 2 and
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or ot
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve to "Yes
This is a market on predicting the winner of the AFC Championship for the 2025-2026 NFL season.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the
This is a market on the prediction of the number of people Trump will deport in 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard edition of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) launches at $100.00 or more. Otherwise, this market will reso
On March 17, Texas announced it had arrested Maria Margarita Rojas for her role in providing illegal abortions and illegally operating a network of cl
On March 17, sitting Minnesota State Senator Justin Eichorn was arrested for allegedly soliciting sex from a 16 year old. You can read more about that
This market will resolve based on federal government current expenditures as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://f
This market will resolve according to the offensive lineman who wins the NFL Protector of the Year Award for the 2025-2026 season. The primary resol
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Brazil's unemployment rate for Q4 2025 is below 6.3% when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to
This is a market on predicting events that will occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.
BitBoy was recently arrested due to a warrant issued for threatening communications he sent to a Judge. You can read more about that here: https://www
This is a market on predicting the date when the UK general election will be officially called.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12 and December 31,
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken (US-based cryptocurrency exchange) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2025, 11:59
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 P
This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gain
This is a market on predicting the launch date of Tesla's unsupervised full self-driving (FSD) technology.
This is a market on the likelihood of a military clash between China and India occurring by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Spanish general election is scheduled between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this
This is a market on whether OpenAI will release a consumer hardware product by the specified date.
This is a market on predicting the winner of the NFC Championship for the 2025-2026 NFL season.
The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024
This market will resolve according to the coach who wins the 2025-2026 NFL Coach of the Year award. The primary resolution source for this market is
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2025, as derived from the 'Advance Estim
In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 see (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). This market will resolve to “Yes” if f
This market will resolve according to the player who wins 2025-2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award. The primary resolution source for this ma
This market will resolve according to the player who wins 2025-2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. The primary resolution source for this m
In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). This market will resolve to “Yes” if f
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This
This is a market on predicting the winner of the NFL Super Bowl for the 2025/26 season.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and Dece
This is a market on predicting the recipient of the Pump.fun airdrop.
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most passing yards in the 2025-2026 NFL regular season. If two or more players are
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha by September
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2025
The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 29. This market will resolve
This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to
This market will resolve according to the player who wins 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. The primary resolution source for this m