What If the EU Expelled a Member State?
A member state's authoritarian slide finally crosses the line. The EU must decide whether to invoke an unprecedented expulsion — or admit the treaties have no teeth.
After years of democratic backsliding, Hungary suspends its constitutional court, arrests opposition journalists, and deploys military units to prevent EU election monitors from entering the country. The European Parliament votes overwhelmingly for an emergency resolution demanding expulsion.
You are the President of the European Council
The Situation Room
>The EU treaties contain no explicit expulsion mechanism — only Article 7 suspension of voting rights, which requires unanimity minus one.
>Germany and France are drafting an unprecedented "treaty interpretation" to argue constructive expulsion is legally permissible.
>Hungary's Prime Minister is on a plane to Moscow, publicly threatening to veto every EU decision from the inside if any action is taken.
Internal Briefing Notes
• Article 7 TEU allows suspension of voting rights but requires unanimous agreement of all other member states.
• There is no treaty mechanism for forced expulsion; any attempt would require creative legal interpretation or a new intergovernmental agreement.
• Hungary holds veto power over EU foreign policy, sanctions, and budget decisions until any suspension takes effect.
Escalation Window
Reveal each phase to see how the situation deteriorates.
The union's credibility as a democratic project is at stake. How do you proceed?
Choose your response. There are no good options.
You set a historic precedent for defending democracy, but shatter the legal foundation of the EU and terrify smaller member states about their own sovereignty.
You follow the treaties but Hungary retains membership and continues blocking critical decisions from within, paralyzing the union.
Core members form a new inner treaty excluding Hungary. The EU fractures into tiers, permanently weakening the single market and collective defense.
Related Entities
Explore the institutions, countries, and actors involved in this scenario.
Hungary
country in Central Europe
Germany
Federal parliamentary republic in Central Europe. Largest economy in the EU with a multi-party coalition system.
France
Semi-presidential republic in Western Europe. Founding EU member and permanent UN Security Council member.
Poland
country in Central Europe
Scenario Lab Feedback