The Taiwan Foundry "Scorched Earth"
A Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan is complete. The US must decide whether to destroy TSMC foundries or evacuate them.
A Chinese naval and air blockade of Taiwan is 100% complete. Allied air superiority is lost. The Taiwanese President calls the White House via secure line: "We have fully rigged the TSMC semiconductor foundries with explosives. Do we detonate them, or hand over the world's computing future to Beijing?"
You are the Director of the CIA
The Situation Room
>US Intelligence confirms PLA elite airborne units are 45 minutes away from seizing the Hsinchu Science Park.
>Evacuating top engineers via submarine is highly risky but underway.
>Handing the foundries to China gives them an insurmountable 10-year advantage in advanced AI chips.
Internal Briefing Notes
• The global economy requires advanced semiconductors (sub-5nm logic chips) to function, 92% of which are produced in these specific Taiwanese foundries.
• The "Broken Nest" doctrine suggests destroying the foundries is the only way to deny China the strategic prize they seek.
• Destruction of the foundries will halt global production of consumer electronics, automotive computers, and military guidance systems for years.
Escalation Window
Reveal each phase to see how the situation deteriorates.
The explosives are rigged and the enemy is at the gates. What is your recommendation?
Choose your response. There are no good options.
You deny China the ultimate prize, but instantly trigger the most severe global economic depression since 1929.
The foundries are captured intact. The US permanently loses global technological hegemony to an authoritarian superpower.
Remove the burden from the Taiwanese government. You ensure destruction, but initiate direct, kinetic US strikes on Chinese occupational forces.
Related Entities
Explore the institutions, countries, and actors involved in this scenario.
United States
Federal presidential republic and the world's largest economy, with power divided among the presidency, Congress, the states, and the federal courts. U.S. politics is highly polarized, two-party dominated, and globally consequential because decisions made in Washington shape finance, trade, security alliances, technology regulation, and military power far beyond U.S. borders.
People's Republic of China
Single-party socialist state led by the Chinese Communist Party and one of the two central poles of global power. China combines party control, state planning capacity, export-industrial strength, technological ambition, and a vast domestic market, making its political decisions consequential for global trade, security, supply chains, and regional power balances.
Japan
Constitutional monarchy with a parliamentary system. Third-largest economy globally, dominated by the LDP since 1955.
Scenario Lab Feedback