The Venezuelan State Collapse
Venezuela's government collapses entirely. Rival factions, drug cartels, and military units carve the country into zones. 5 million more refugees head for Colombia and Brazil.
After a disputed election, Venezuela's military fractures. The president flees to Cuba. Three generals, two opposition leaders, and the FARC-linked ELN guerrilla group each claim control of different territories. The oil industry halts completely. Five million Venezuelans — in addition to the seven million already displaced — begin walking toward the Colombian border.
You are the President of Colombia
The Situation Room
>The Colombian border town of Cúcuta is overwhelmed. Humanitarian agencies report they can provide for 50,000 people. There are 800,000 in transit.
>Venezuelan military factions are fighting each other near the border. Stray artillery has already landed on Colombian soil.
>The US is offering military assistance but attaching conditions about oil concessions that would be politically toxic.
Internal Briefing Notes
• Colombia already hosts over 2.5 million Venezuelan migrants — the largest refugee crisis in the Western Hemisphere.
• Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves. Whoever controls the country controls the oil.
• The Colombian military is capable but stretched thin fighting its own internal insurgencies along the Venezuelan border.
Escalation Window
Reveal each phase to see how the situation deteriorates.
Your neighbor has collapsed. Millions are heading your way and armed factions are spilling across the border. What do you do?
Choose your response. There are no good options.
Send Colombian forces into Venezuela to create a buffer zone. You stop the refugee flow but own the reconstruction of a failed state — Colombia's own Afghanistan.
Stop the refugee flow by force. Hundreds of thousands will be trapped in a war zone, but Colombia's own stability is preserved.
Call for a multilateral intervention through the OAS. It will take months to organize, and people are dying now.
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