The Middle East Nuclear Cascade
Iran tests a nuclear weapon. Within 48 hours, Saudi Arabia and Turkey announce their own programs. The nonproliferation regime collapses.
Iran conducts an underground nuclear test in the Dasht-e Lut desert, confirmed by seismic monitors worldwide. Supreme Leader declares Iran a "permanent nuclear state." Within 36 hours, Saudi Crown Prince announces the Kingdom will exercise its "sovereign right to nuclear deterrence" using technology purchased from Pakistan. Turkey's president calls an emergency NATO session, demanding either NATO nuclear sharing or Turkey's right to develop its own arsenal.
You are the US National Security Advisor
The Situation Room
>Israel has gone to its highest alert level. Intelligence suggests IAF aircraft are being loaded with nuclear-capable munitions.
>The IAEA is in emergency session but has no enforcement power.
>Pakistan's government denies any deal with Saudi Arabia, but ISI sources confirm warhead designs were transferred months ago.
Internal Briefing Notes
• The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has no enforcement mechanism beyond IAEA inspections and UN Security Council referrals.
• Saudi Arabia is believed to have financed Pakistan's nuclear program decades ago with an understanding of future access.
• Turkey hosts US B61 nuclear gravity bombs at Incirlik Air Base under NATO sharing — but does not control them.
Escalation Window
Reveal each phase to see how the situation deteriorates.
The world is watching the fastest nuclear proliferation cascade in history. How do you advise the President?
Choose your response. There are no good options.
Eliminate Iran's capability, but trigger a massive regional war and guarantee that every Middle Eastern state accelerates its own secret program in response.
Extended deterrence could halt the cascade, but you're now pledging to fight nuclear wars on behalf of Saudi Arabia and potentially Turkey simultaneously.
Pivot to arms control and mutual deterrence frameworks. You preserve peace today but accept a world where a dozen unstable states eventually possess nuclear weapons.
Related Entities
Explore the institutions, countries, and actors involved in this scenario.
Iran
Theocratic Islamic republic and a major regional power in the Middle East, governed by the principle of velayat-e faqih (guardianship of the Islamic jurist). Iran's political system has two overlapping power structures: elected bodies (the presidency, parliament) and unelected religious institutions (the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, Assembly of Experts). Since the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2026, Iran has entered a period of contested succession under Mojtaba Khamenei, while reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian continues to seek Western re-engagement.
Saudi Arabia
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