Election Pass: Market Divergence

This is a market on predicting events that will occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.

48.5%

Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?

This is a market on predicting events that will occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.

48.5%

Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?

This is a market on predicting events that will occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.

51.5%

Trump out as President before GTA VI?

This is a market on predicting events that will occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.

50.5%

New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?

This is a market on predicting events that will occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.

53.0%

New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?

This is a market on predicting events that will occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.

55.0%

Will the Seahawks win the 2026 NFC Championship?

This is a market on predicting the winner of the NFC Championship for the 2025-2026 NFL season.

43.6%

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between February 2 and

49.5%

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?

This is a market on predicting the launch date of Tesla's unsupervised full self-driving (FSD) technology.

42.0%

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the

47.2%

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?

This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.

58.5%

Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taylor Swift announces that she is pregnant between July 30, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise,

41.0%

Will Trent Williams win the NFL Protector of the Year?

This market will resolve according to the offensive lineman who wins the NFL Protector of the Year Award for the 2025-2026 season. The primary resol

46.3%

BitBoy convicted?

BitBoy was recently arrested due to a warrant issued for threatening communications he sent to a Judge. You can read more about that here: https://www

57.0%

High Conviction (>85% or <15%)

Markets where the crowd has largely made up its mind.

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to

3.4%

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to

9.5%

Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows an increase greater than that of any previous

0.3%

Kraken IPO in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken (US-based cryptocurrency exchange) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2025, 11:59

Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken (US-based cryptocurrency exchange) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2025, 11:59

90.0%