Methodology

What We Show

PoliticaHub displays real-time implied probabilities derived from prediction market prices. When someone pays $0.52 for a contract that pays $1.00 if an event occurs, we interpret this as a 52% implied probability.

Data Sources

We aggregate data from public prediction markets:

• Polymarket — Cryptocurrency-based prediction market
• Kalshi — US-regulated prediction market
• Metaculus — Community forecasting platform

Calculation

We calculate implied probability using the midpoint of bid and ask prices:

Implied Probability = (Bid Price + Ask Price) / 2 × 100%

For markets with multiple outcomes, we normalize probabilities to sum to 100%.

Update Frequency

• Market prices: Every 5 minutes
• Historical data: Hourly snapshots
• All timestamps displayed in UTC

Limitations

1. Liquidity — Low-volume markets may show less reliable prices
2. Fees — Trading fees can create bid-ask spreads that affect accuracy
3. Regulatory — Some markets restricted by jurisdiction
4. Not Predictions — We display market consensus, not our predictions

What We Don't Do

• We do not predict outcomes
• We do not recommend bets
• We do not provide financial advice
• We do not advocate for candidates or policies