Prediction Market Glossary
If you can read the vocabulary, you can read the market. This glossary covers the core language behind pricing, liquidity, and settlement.
Core terms
Implied probability: the probability suggested by the current market price.
Binary market: a market with two outcomes, usually yes or no.
Resolution: the official process that determines which outcome wins once the event is settled.
Trading terms
Liquidity: how easy it is to buy or sell without moving price too much.
Spread: the gap between the highest bid and the lowest ask.
Volume: the amount of trading activity in a market over a given period.
Analysis terms
Arbitrage: taking advantage of price differences between equivalent or related markets.
Repricing: a meaningful shift in market odds after new information arrives.
Consensus: the collective estimate produced by active participants in the market.
Why the vocabulary matters
Readers who understand these terms can separate signal from noise much faster. You do not need to trade to benefit from that literacy.
PoliticaHub is designed to make these concepts visible through charts, comparisons, and context so the market becomes easier to interpret at a glance.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is implied probability in plain English?
It is the chance the market is currently assigning to an event, based on price.
Why does liquidity matter so much?
Because low liquidity makes prices easier to push around, which can make the displayed probability less reliable in the short term.