How Prediction Markets Work

A prediction market is a financial exchange where participants buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of future events. The price of a contract reflects the collective probability that the event will occur. For example, if a contract for "Will X win the election?" trades at 65 cents, the market implies a 65% probability.

Yes, in many jurisdictions. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange in the United States. Polymarket operates on blockchain technology and is accessible globally, though restrictions apply in some countries. PoliticaHub aggregates data from these platforms but does not operate a prediction market or facilitate trading.

Research consistently shows prediction markets outperform polls, particularly close to an event. A 2004 study in the Journal of Economic Perspectives found prediction markets were more accurate than polls in 74% of cases. Markets aggregate diverse information sources and update in real-time, while polls are static snapshots with known methodological limitations.

PoliticaHub is a political newsroom platform with automated drafting, editorial review, and analysis workflows. We occasionally use prediction market data from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi as context, but the core product is political reporting and editorial intelligence. We do not operate a prediction market or provide financial advice.

PoliticaHub refreshes market data approximately every 60 seconds from source platforms. Historical snapshots are stored hourly for trend analysis. The data you see is near-real-time, though slight delays may occur during high-volume periods.