Israel strike on Damascus by October 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Damascus Governorate, or any target within it, between September 1, 7:20 PM ET, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Damascus Governorate. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land in Damascus Governorate, or cause damage. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.

This chart shows market-implied probability over time, aggregated from public prediction markets.