Will Mamdani make NYC buses free by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur: 1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election. 2. The New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority implements a policy under which the base local fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes operating within New York City (New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company) is $0 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The policy will be considered to have been implemented if it is actively in effect by the resolution date. The enactment of a policy without its implementation will not alone qualify. Policies which are blocked by legal or other means before they go into effect will similarly not qualify. Limited pilots (e.g., a subset of routes or specific days), temporary “fare holidays,” or targeted free-fare programs (e.g., only youth, seniors, or low-income riders) do not qualify. Policies which include limited exceptions such as express-bus fares, fares on specific lines (such as Airport lines) or other exclusions will still qualify as long as a general policy of $0 fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes is in effect. If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This chart shows market-implied probability over time, aggregated from public prediction markets.