Educational visualization only. This is not gambling, financial advice, or political advocacy. Learn more
Educational visualization only. This is not gambling, financial advice, or political advocacy. Learn more
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This chart shows market-implied probability over time, aggregated from public prediction markets.
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Estimated payouts based on current odds. Actual payouts vary based on liquidity. Not financial advice.
The Israeli military has dropped charges against soldiers accused of abusing a Palestinian detainee at Sde Teiman military prison, citing "exceptional circumstances."
Mojtaba Khamenei has been appointed Iran’s Supreme Leader as the U.S.-Israel conflict enters its tenth day, triggering a spike in global oil prices.
An analysis of the structural patterns of mission creep and strategic ambiguity in the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran regional conflict.
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