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PoliticsUpdated less than a minute ago

Will the U.S. national debt hit $40 trillion before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. national debt reaches the listed value this year at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current). If treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

97.7%

This chart shows market-implied probability over time, aggregated from public prediction markets.

Probability Over Time

Current implied probability

97.7%

Data Sources

Polymarket97.7%

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Links to prediction markets may include referral attribution.

"What If" Payout Calculator

If you bet...

Bet YES

$102.35

Profit: $2.35+2% ROI

Bet NO

$4347.83

Profit: $4247.83+4248% ROI

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Estimated payouts based on current odds. Actual payouts vary based on liquidity. Not financial advice.

Market Info

CategoryPolitics

ResolutionDec 31, 2026

Last Updatedless than a minute ago

Where to Trade

Polymarket

Largest prediction market by volume. Crypto-based.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "Will the U.S. national debt hit $40 trillion before 2027?"?▾

As of March 14, 2026, prediction markets give this a 97.7% implied probability, aggregated from Polymarket.

How are these probabilities calculated?▾

PoliticaHub aggregates real-money prediction market data from platforms like Polymarket. The displayed probability reflects what traders are actually betting, not polls or expert opinion.

Has the probability for "Will the U.S. national debt hit $40 trillion before 2027?" changed recently?▾

The probability has been stable over the last 24 hours, suggesting no significant new information has been priced in by traders.

Where can I trade on "Will the U.S. national debt hit $40 trillion before 2027?"?▾

This market is available on Polymarket. PoliticaHub is a data aggregator and does not facilitate trading. Visit the source platforms directly to place trades.

Market Updates

Will the U.S. national debt hit $40 trillion before 2027?

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See what the money knows
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Will the U.S. national debt hit $40 trillion before 2027?

Where to Trade

Frequently Asked Questions

Explore More

See what the money knows before the news breaks.

See what the money knows
before the news breaks.