Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns. -Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility -Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank -A U.S. Treasury capital injection -A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs. Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify. If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.

This chart shows market-implied probability over time, aggregated from public prediction markets.