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This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This chart shows market-implied probability over time, aggregated from public prediction markets.
Links to prediction markets may include referral attribution.
Estimated payouts based on current odds. Actual payouts vary based on liquidity. Not financial advice.
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