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Polymarket Kalshi Metaculus

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Not financial advice. Data cached for performance.

Market Scorecard

Resolved Markets

How accurate were prediction markets? Every resolved market gets a Brier-scored accuracy grade.

83

Resolved

B

Avg Grade

0.063

Avg Brier

63

A/B Grades

March 2026

Will Person K win the 2026 Republican Primary?

Final: 50.0%Outcome: YESMar 3, 2026

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Final: 84.5%Outcome: YESMar 3, 2026

Will Person L win the 2026 Republican Primary?

Final: 50.0%Outcome: YESMar 3, 2026

Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Final: 15.5%Outcome: NOMar 3, 2026

Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Final: 0.1%Outcome: NOMar 3, 2026

Will Person M win the 2026 Republican Primary?

Final: 50.0%Outcome: YESMar 3, 2026

Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Final: 0.1%Outcome: NOMar 3, 2026

Will Person O win the 2026 Republican Primary?

Final: 50.0%Outcome: YESMar 3, 2026

Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Final: 0.7%Outcome: NOMar 3, 2026

Will Person B win the 2026 Republican Primary?

Final: 50.0%Outcome: YESMar 3, 2026

Will Person C win the 2026 Republican Primary?

Final: 50.0%Outcome: YESMar 3, 2026

Will Person D win the 2026 Republican Primary?

Final: 50.0%Outcome: YESMar 3, 2026

Will Person E win the 2026 Republican Primary?

Final: 50.0%Outcome: YESMar 3, 2026

Will Person N win the 2026 Republican Primary?

Final: 50.0%Outcome: YESMar 3, 2026

Will Person F win the 2026 Republican Primary?

Final: 50.0%Outcome: YESMar 3, 2026

Will Person G win the 2026 Republican Primary?

Final: 50.0%Outcome: YESMar 3, 2026

Will Person H win the 2026 Republican Primary?

Final: 50.0%Outcome: YESMar 3, 2026

Will Person I win the 2026 Republican Primary?

Final: 50.0%Outcome: YESMar 3, 2026

Will Person J win the 2026 Republican Primary?

Final: 50.0%Outcome: YESMar 3, 2026

Will another candidate win the 2026 Republican Primary?

Final: 50.0%Outcome: YESMar 3, 2026

December 2025

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

Final: 13.5%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?

Final: 1.4%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Final: 7.5%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Kraken IPO in 2025?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026?

Final: 9.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?

Final: 72.5%Outcome: YESDec 31, 2025

Will the next UK election be called by March 31?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will the next UK election be called by December 31?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will the next UK election be called by June 30?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?

Final: 10.1%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

China x India military clash by December 31?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

China x India military clash by June 30?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?

Final: 17.5%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in 2025?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?

Final: 4.5%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Starmer out in 2025?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Final: 50.0%Outcome: YESDec 31, 2025

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Final: 70.5%Outcome: YESDec 31, 2025

Starmer out by February 28, 2026?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Starmer out by March 31, 2026?

Final: 5.5%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Ukraine election called in 2025?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?

Final: 21.5%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026?

Final: 3.2%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will any country leave NATO in 2025?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?

Final: 4.2%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?

Final: 11.5%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?

Final: 22.5%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

Final: 35.1%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?

Final: 15.5%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?

Final: 4.7%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?

Final: 15.9%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?

Final: 31.8%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?

Final: 6.4%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?

Final: 2.6%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?

Final: 36.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?

Final: 25.5%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Final: 88.5%Outcome: YESDec 31, 2025

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Final: 80.5%Outcome: YESDec 31, 2025

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?

Final: 51.5%Outcome: YESDec 31, 2025

Spain snap election called in 2025?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?

Final: 16.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?

Final: 5.5%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?

Final: 9.3%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 18?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by August 31?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by September 30?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by June 30?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31?

Final: 0.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by March 31?

Final: 3.6%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025

Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026

Final: 20.0%Outcome: NODec 31, 2025